I have and will be one of the most ardent supporters of 'Nitish Kumar for Bihar CM' , which makes me very sad when I say-'The man has lost the game in Elections 2014'. Nitish epitomizes the liberal values India stands for as well as moral integrity that Gandhi sadly made us famous for.My admiration for him developed after reading Pavan Verma's wonderfully researched book 'Nitish Kumar and the Rise of Bihar' . What I liked the most about him was his ability to use the right mixture of goondagiri as well as his image of a self-righteous human being. The man was( I repeat was) a political genius. He knew- whom to ally?,when to ally?, whom to distance?, which mosque to visit? the only questions that matter in Indian electoral politics.
But then 'Modi' happened to Bihar and the country. Nitish wasnt the same cold political strategist anymore.
The Reason- Modi was more cold and a more intelligent political strategist than him. Nitish broke the 17 year old JD(U)-BJP alliance due to one and only one issue- his ego. He just could not get along with a man who was more adept in strategy than him, a man more popular all around the state and nation than him, a man who would be a greater crowd puller than him in his own home turf- Bihar. Nitish's fall from power has only one contributing factor- Nitish's ego.
What Modi has got right in Bihar for this elections can be summed up in one word- Alliances.That is one hell of a strategy to use when a 17 year old marriage ends- get into bed with your partners rivals. Everyone knows about the alliance between the BJP and dalit leader- Ram Vilas Paswan's - Lok Janashakti Party(LJP) but not many know about its alliance with a former JD(U) member,OBC leader Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya Lok Samata Party(RLSP). The BJP/Modi is attempting to do a new kind of social engineering in Bihar, one which includes the 1) warrior brahmins-Bhumihars,the other Brahmins, Rajputs,Thakurs and other upper castes.
2) A major portion of the dalits and surprisingly 22% of the Muslims(refer CSDS CNNIBN poll)
3) A large portion of the Yadavs
under its own banner.
The Paswans and another significant chunk of dalits under Lok Janashakti Party, the Kushwahas and a significant chunk of the EBC's under RLSP.
Here is how the fronts are stacked up-
1) The JDU is going with the CPI.JDU-39 and the CPI -1
2) The BJP is giving 3 seats to RLSP and 7 seats to LJP keeping 32 to itself.
3) The RJD(lalu) is giving the INC 11 and NCP 1 keeping 28 seats with itself
4) The AAP is a non-entity here.
The upper castes are angry at Nitish for jilting BJP, A large number of Yadavs are becoming more and more favorably disposed towards the person trying to portray himself as the protector-in-chief of the Yaduvamsha- Shri Narendra Modi. The division of dalits into Dalits and Mahadalits to cut Paswan out of the picture has Backfired-in a huge way and clever candidate selection and hostile takeovers of Bihari media houses and newspapers by Gujrathis over the last few years has payed off with BJP getting close to 22 % of Muslim support.
Let us see what the CNN IBN-CSDS-Week poll predicts-
Party Vote Share Seats
BJP+ 43% 21-29
INC+ 28% 07-13
JDU 16% 02-05
This polling was done before the now famous Ram Kirpal Yadav- a credible Yadav face whom the BJP badly needed broke the 30 year old chord with Lalu and joined the BJP. This will have a huge effect in Yadav dominated areas such as Pataliputra and Maharajganj.
What is interesting to note is the return of Lalu.Remember - 'Jab tak samose me aloo rehega/Tabtak Bihar me Laloo Rahega'? He ha managed to increase his Muslim vote share and has come just short of compensating the loss of Yadav votes to the BJP .Bihar is overwhelmingly in support of Modi in this opinion poll with 42% preferring Modi with only 10% for Rahul.
Here is how I believe things will pan out in the next few days. My sources in the JDU tell me that BJP is going all out to woo the muslim vote bank in the coming days and has something rdical w.r.t. Muslim vote in the makin.This has 2 consequences -
1) More and More of the upper cast vote al Yadav vote of the JDU will shif to the BJP.
2) Nitish will chip away major chunks of the muslim vote-preventing strategic voting by them thus helping BJP
The whole political scenario is now stacked up in Modi's favour. The only thing that will change that is JDU joining the RJD alliance . The the tables will turn. However it is not likely to happen in the near future.
Whatever maybe the results, Nitish's coming out of the NDA will forever be taught to students of Bihari political history as the 'Great Nitish Blunder'......
But then 'Modi' happened to Bihar and the country. Nitish wasnt the same cold political strategist anymore.
The Reason- Modi was more cold and a more intelligent political strategist than him. Nitish broke the 17 year old JD(U)-BJP alliance due to one and only one issue- his ego. He just could not get along with a man who was more adept in strategy than him, a man more popular all around the state and nation than him, a man who would be a greater crowd puller than him in his own home turf- Bihar. Nitish's fall from power has only one contributing factor- Nitish's ego.
What Modi has got right in Bihar for this elections can be summed up in one word- Alliances.That is one hell of a strategy to use when a 17 year old marriage ends- get into bed with your partners rivals. Everyone knows about the alliance between the BJP and dalit leader- Ram Vilas Paswan's - Lok Janashakti Party(LJP) but not many know about its alliance with a former JD(U) member,OBC leader Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya Lok Samata Party(RLSP). The BJP/Modi is attempting to do a new kind of social engineering in Bihar, one which includes the 1) warrior brahmins-Bhumihars,the other Brahmins, Rajputs,Thakurs and other upper castes.
2) A major portion of the dalits and surprisingly 22% of the Muslims(refer CSDS CNNIBN poll)
3) A large portion of the Yadavs
under its own banner.
The Paswans and another significant chunk of dalits under Lok Janashakti Party, the Kushwahas and a significant chunk of the EBC's under RLSP.
Here is how the fronts are stacked up-
1) The JDU is going with the CPI.JDU-39 and the CPI -1
2) The BJP is giving 3 seats to RLSP and 7 seats to LJP keeping 32 to itself.
3) The RJD(lalu) is giving the INC 11 and NCP 1 keeping 28 seats with itself
4) The AAP is a non-entity here.
The upper castes are angry at Nitish for jilting BJP, A large number of Yadavs are becoming more and more favorably disposed towards the person trying to portray himself as the protector-in-chief of the Yaduvamsha- Shri Narendra Modi. The division of dalits into Dalits and Mahadalits to cut Paswan out of the picture has Backfired-in a huge way and clever candidate selection and hostile takeovers of Bihari media houses and newspapers by Gujrathis over the last few years has payed off with BJP getting close to 22 % of Muslim support.
Let us see what the CNN IBN-CSDS-Week poll predicts-
Party Vote Share Seats
BJP+ 43% 21-29
INC+ 28% 07-13
JDU 16% 02-05
This polling was done before the now famous Ram Kirpal Yadav- a credible Yadav face whom the BJP badly needed broke the 30 year old chord with Lalu and joined the BJP. This will have a huge effect in Yadav dominated areas such as Pataliputra and Maharajganj.
What is interesting to note is the return of Lalu.Remember - 'Jab tak samose me aloo rehega/Tabtak Bihar me Laloo Rahega'? He ha managed to increase his Muslim vote share and has come just short of compensating the loss of Yadav votes to the BJP .Bihar is overwhelmingly in support of Modi in this opinion poll with 42% preferring Modi with only 10% for Rahul.
Here is how I believe things will pan out in the next few days. My sources in the JDU tell me that BJP is going all out to woo the muslim vote bank in the coming days and has something rdical w.r.t. Muslim vote in the makin.This has 2 consequences -
1) More and More of the upper cast vote al Yadav vote of the JDU will shif to the BJP.
2) Nitish will chip away major chunks of the muslim vote-preventing strategic voting by them thus helping BJP
The whole political scenario is now stacked up in Modi's favour. The only thing that will change that is JDU joining the RJD alliance . The the tables will turn. However it is not likely to happen in the near future.
Whatever maybe the results, Nitish's coming out of the NDA will forever be taught to students of Bihari political history as the 'Great Nitish Blunder'......
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