The Kurds were cheated out of their cherished Kurdistan in the Treaty of Versailles after World War 1. After almost 100 years they have achieved defacto independence and the oil supplies have not been affected too. They have started exporting via Turkey.
The Shia's in the south have lost control over the Kurds and the Sunni dominated Areas towards the Syrian Border and Mosul. A much needed realignment and again here too, the oil supplies from Southern oilfields have not changed in a Major way.
Though the Salafi ISIL militants broadcast their Intentions of attacking Karbala and Najaf-Shia Holy Sites and Iraq's capital Baghdad repeatedly , the chances of them actually doing so is nil. The reasons for that are listed below:-
1) Baghdad no longer has the 35% Sunni population due to the collapse of the Baathist rule. It has little over 13% sunni population according to latest estimates and that too is rapidly declining since the outbreak of ISIL inspired revenge attack from Shia Militants. The are fleeing to neighboring sunni ruled countries.
2) ISIL does not have such a strong manpower as the media has projected. Even there has been a humongous influx of 'fundies' settled in the west to it's Syria based training camps, it will take atleast 3 months for even basic training. Indian and Indonesian Sunnis have fewer ways of Joining it when compared to the beginning of 2014 as Turkey is closing down its borders in fear of these militants radicalizing the Syriac immigrant and local Sunni populations
3) As you may have read in the front pages of Indian Newspapers, Indian Shia's too have been mobilizing in huge numbers to be a part of Shia militias in Iraq. If this is the case in a country like India imagine what is happening in Iran. The militant threat of blowing up Najaf and Karbala is just adding fuel to this sectarian fire.
Now coming to the areas occupied by ISIL . Al-Bhagdadi does not have the fanatical following Mullah Omar enjoyed in Afghanistan and Pashtun Areas of Pakistan. He has been able to occupy these areas only with the help of disgruntled Sunni tribals and remnants of the Baathist regime of Saddam Hussein. This makes him a sitting duck . The Baathist and Sunni tribals will use their control as leverage for more control commensurate to their Strength in terms of population ( about 20% in total) in the Iraqi Government or form a government of their own.
The real fan following of Al- Bhagdadi is in countries like India and Indonesia, In the muslim ghettos of Birmingham and Southern Paris . They are a bigger danger to the world than ISIL to the middle east.
This division of Iraq in Sectarian lines may actually be a ticket to security within the middle east.
